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  • #16
    Re: Air France 447

    Brazil: 2 bodies found near jet crash site

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    • #17
      Re: Air France 447

      Originally posted by MyopicJoe View Post
      I'm thinking the U.S. Navy (or another country w/ modern subs) will need to get involved.
      The offer's been extended to France, and with France re-joining NATO exercises then perhaps they'll want to accept. But it's unpredictable. They don't want to be seen as weak and they're notorious among the military for putting pride before common sense.

      Originally posted by MyopicJoe View Post
      Submarine design is a constant arms race between silence and hearing. The Seawolf class attack submarine has the best sonar technology America can muster. The question is: is it good enough for the above two scenarios?
      How loud was the sound of the plane hitting the water? How close would a sub need to be, to detect that sound among the background noise in the ocean (keeping in mind they aren't expecting such an event to occur)? Was the sub at the proper depth to hear it (the ocean has different layers of water where sound tends to stay within)?
      If not the sound of the crash, how about the sound of implosions, as the plane sinks below crush depth? The fuselage probably broke apart on impact and flooded with water. Are there any other containers holding enough air to make a loud enough "POP"?
      SEAWOLF has the best hull arrays but a lot of the processing hardware has been tested on LOS ANGELES-class and VIRGINIA-class subs and, in some cases, retrofitted to their hulls. The acoustic advantage is minor and dependent on more than just which class of sub.

      As far as searching it's a matter of who's where doing what, whether they can break free of their current ops, and how long it'll take them to get down there. It's not a popular area for U.S. Navy subs unless UNITAS or some other exercise is in progress. I'm not sure exactly where USS HAWAII is right now, but I don't think anyone would mind if they got to Pearl Harbor a few weeks late.

      As you've said, acoustic conditions would've been a mess. If that storm is as nasty as the media says then the sub would've been deeper than 400 feet and perhaps well below any acoustic layer. Even if the submarine had been submerged at the position where the airplane hit the water, the noise would've been explained away as the storm/wave action. There's a possibility that an alert operator would've heard implosions (bottles & cans) but they would've had to be listening on that bearing at that time or go back through the tapes. The transients would show up on a visual waterfall display for a few minutes and would have been recorded on the sonar tapes, but they might not have been recognized as what's called "breaking-up noises". Highly unlikely that they would've realized what they were hearing and what caused it.

      When U.S. Navy submarines are disposing of trash they compact it, put it in weighted containers, load it in the trash-disposal tube, shut the breech door real tight, open the hull valve, and drop/flush the cans out of the hole at the bottom of the hull. Occasionally a bottle or can won't be compacted correctly, and its air bubble will cause it to implode as the container sinks. It's easily detectable at distances up to at least a mile but again an operator would have to see it on the video display, be listening on that bearing, and be able to put it into context. Lots of other critters and storm/wave noises sound similar.

      What would be more likely to pick up the crash would be the remnants of the U.S. SOSUS arrays. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SOSUS) I haven't kept up with the system status but if a couple different arrays detected the impact and transients then they'd be able to more precisely triangulate the site. (But again that storm could have messed up conditions too much for detection.) If that's been done, then the U.S. will pass along a position at high diplomatic levels and find a cover story to keep SOSUS out of the media.

      Originally posted by MyopicJoe View Post
      If the crash wasn't / can't be detected, what about the acoustic beacon? They think the plane is sitting at 9k to 14k feet. The Seawolf can go down to 2k. Is that close enough to hear it? Sound can travel surprising distances, underwater. Submarines can deploy a towed sonar array behind them. Can they sink one down to great depths?
      How noisy is the ocean in that area? Will the terrain surrounding the resting place muffle the sounds from the becaon?
      Will the fact that the beacon sounds off every second aid in its detection? Did you know cellphone and GPS radio signals are weaker than background noise, yet we can still receive phone calls and our bombs still land where we tell them to (doesn't mean we gave them the right target)?
      It's not the depth (although the towed arrays can be streamed out several thousand feet astern), it's the acoustic conditions. Military sonar systems will use their instrumentation (and whatever historical/climatological survey data is available) to analyze the local conditions and tweak their electronics.

      The black box has been designed to be heard by surface sonars or surface towed arrays, so it'd be easy to detect on a submarine system. If the box survived. If its batteries and transducers are working correctly. If it's not buried too deep in mudslides or under rocks. If they're within a few miles.

      Originally posted by MyopicJoe View Post
      And finally, beyond technology issues, would the Navy want to get involved? Do they want to reveal their capabilities? Do they want to have their submarines (whose job is to roam around undetected), hanging around in predictable places?
      Sure, but the national command authorities are going to have to set the priorities. Some poor staff officer has been figuring out how fast half of SUBLANT's units can get down there and then telling the flag officers what can be done, how soon it can happen, and what else will have to be postponed or canceled. But this is a great chance for the submarine force to show what it can do, and I can't think of anything with a higher priority.

      The U.S. & French navies might share information. Any really cool technology or other classified details will be explained away as hard work (by the French) or luck. If the French are feeling particularly grateful then they might acknowledge the U.S. Navy's contribution, and then the Navy might talk about the submarine involved. Otherwise SUBLANT will just hand out a box of medals "for operations in the highest levels of national interest".

      Once the box is located, the U.S. sub would back off and a surface-supported ROV or rescue vehicle will go recover it. I think they're better at it (and more affordable) than anything the submarine force (of any country) can do.

      Originally posted by MyopicJoe View Post
      I'm thinking they'll try (though they might not tell anyone), just to test out their technology and training. I imagine they'd also tell the world if (and only if) they find it. Might be difficult to resist an opportunity to brag.
      Allied countries share a lot of information about where their submarines are operating, although specific times/locations are usually a box of about 20 miles square. The French will declare that part of the ocean their submerged operating area, which will obligate everyone else to stay out of it at their peril (and embarrassment). A proficient U.S. submarine crew would be able to sneak in & out undetected, but the whole idea carries a huge amount of unpredictable risk with unacceptable safety/diplomatic consequences. There probably wouldn't be a collision but it's not unheard of for other submarines to lose their towed arrays or to get things wrapped around their hulls or screws.

      I can't imagine anyone from SECNAV on up wanting to take those kinds of risks for this sort of reward. You'd be surprised how much imagery has the periscope crosshairs removed before anyone outside of the submarine force sees it, even within the U.S. Navy. If American forces found the box, they'd pass the info to the French and let them have the credit for future reimbursement. No reason to brag or get greedy. The right people would know who got the job done, and that's all that matters when the next round of budget authorizations is up for discussion.

      Of course in a few years we could be reading unconfirmed reports about it in an update to "Blind Man's Bluff"...
      Youth may be wasted on the young, but retirement is wasted on the old.
      Live like you're dying, invest like you're immortal.
      We grow old if we stop playing, but it's never too late to have a happy childhood.
      Forget about who you were-- discover who you are.

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      • #18
        Re: Air France 447

        Heard it mentioned last night that a meteor could possibly be the culprit.
        Slight, but not impossibly slim, supposedly a 1 in 10 chance.
        https://www.facebook.com/Bobby-Ingan...5875444640256/

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        • #19
          Re: Air France 447

          Originally posted by Ron Whitfield View Post
          Heard it mentioned last night that a meteor could possibly be the culprit.
          Slight, but not impossibly slim, supposedly a 1 in 10 chance.
          I wouldn't believe that Art Bell kind of story.

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          • #20
            Re: Air France 447

            U.S. to send more personnel, equipment to help search Air France 447
            The U.S. Defense Department said on Monday that it would send a team to help find the black box recording flight data of the crashed Air France 447. The Pentagon said in a statement that the 19-person crew, including military personnel and contractors, would fly along with Navy equipment to Natal, Brazil, to aid in the search for Air France Flight 447's data recorders.
            12 similar flights deepen Air France 447 mystery
            Airlines confirmed that at least a dozen aircraft departed roughly at the same time and traversed approximately the same route, but did not report problematic weather conditions. This has led some aviation experts to suggest that technical problems on the airplane might be the main cause of the crash, though they may have combined with weather conditions to create serious problems.

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            • #21
              Re: Air France 447

              Originally posted by Walkoff Balk View Post
              I wouldn't believe that Art Bell kind of story.
              This theory was out prior to any coast to coast show mentioning it. They merely picked up on it.
              Many CTC topics have been scoffed at over the years, only to become legitimized with further proof and acceptance.
              Disbelieve at your own risk.
              https://www.facebook.com/Bobby-Ingan...5875444640256/

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              • #22
                Re: Air France 447

                Originally posted by Ron Whitfield View Post
                Heard it mentioned last night that a meteor could possibly be the culprit.
                Slight, but not impossibly slim, supposedly a 1 in 10 chance.
                Originally posted by Walkoff Balk View Post
                I wouldn't believe that Art Bell kind of story.
                Actually, the recent mention in connection with Air France flight 447 came from a Discover Magazine blog post, but the initial suggestion was made by two Columbia University science professors, in a 1996 letter to the New York Times, referencing TWA flight 800.

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                • #23
                  Re: Air France 447

                  Originally posted by Ron Whitfield View Post
                  This theory was out prior to any coast to coast show mentioning it. They merely picked up on it.
                  Was that theory really was on The Art Bell Show. I just mention this program as a reference for space out conspiracy ideas.

                  Originally posted by Leo Lakio View Post
                  Actually, the recent mention in connection with Air France flight 447 came from a Discover Magazine blog post, but the initial suggestion was made by two Columbia University science professors, in a 1996 letter to the New York Times, referencing TWA flight 80
                  Another thing nervous flyers will have to worry about possibly going wrong.

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                  • #24
                    Re: Air France 447

                    Update - as reported today by AP:

                    Autopsies suggest Air France jet broke up in sky
                    To be, or musubi... What was da question?

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                    • #25
                      Re: Air France 447

                      Originally posted by musubi View Post
                      Update - as reported today by AP:

                      Autopsies suggest Air France jet broke up in sky
                      How disturbing. Passenger jets are supposed to be able to withstand even hurricane force winds (at least that's what the fear of flying website told me once ). That means that the AirBus composite materials may be insufficient compared to more traditionally built planes. I'll stick to flying on Boeing for now.

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                      • #26
                        Re: Air France 447

                        The lack of clothing on the recovered bodies had them surmising this was an in air breakup at least a week ago.
                        https://www.facebook.com/Bobby-Ingan...5875444640256/

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                        • #27
                          Re: Air France 447

                          Fractured bones also occur when planes crash into the ocean intact. During my search-and-rescue days I was involved in multiple incidents of private planes crashing into the ocean. I was surprised at the incredible bone fracturing and an FAA investigator explained that just before the plane crashes the victims realize what's coming and subconciously put out their arms to brace against the impact, much like you would in an automobile. But at airplane speeds, when your arms are fully extended and elbows locked, the bones just fracture like an accordion.
                          .
                          .

                          That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.

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                          • #28
                            Re: Air France 447

                            Originally posted by Ron Whitfield View Post
                            The lack of clothing on the recovered bodies had them surmising this was an in air breakup at least a week ago.
                            True, but now there is also forensic evidence to support that theory.
                            However, the reason for the in-air breakup remains to be determined.

                            Originally posted by Vanguard View Post
                            How disturbing. Passenger jets are supposed to be able to withstand even hurricane force winds (at least that's what the fear of flying website told me once ). That means that the AirBus composite materials may be insufficient compared to more traditionally built planes. I'll stick to flying on Boeing for now.
                            I had similar thoughts, especially after hearing about how the Pitot tubes (airspeed sensors) could have iced up and given false airspeed readings.
                            On the other hand, it seems that the investigators have not yet ruled out the possibility of an explosion. From the article:

                            "Lack of burn evidence would not necessarily rule out an explosion, said John Goglia, a former member of the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board.

                            If something caused the lower fuselage to burn or explode, "passengers would not be exposed to any blast damage" and the plane would still disintegrate in flight," Goglia said. "These are scenarios that cannot be ruled out."

                            The cause of this tragedy remains a mystery.
                            To be, or musubi... What was da question?

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                            • #29
                              Re: Air France 447

                              Originally posted by tutusue View Post
                              I don't want to even think what the terrifying moments leading up to death must've been like.
                              Terrible to say at least according to this speculative narrative posted at another message board:


                              "A peak experience"



                              Truly severe turbulence, enough to damage the aircraft, would be insane in the cabin.

                              Overhead bins would be opening, spilling stuff everywhere. Which would then be bouncing from floor to ceiling, over and over, along with anyone not belted in. There would be a lot of creaking and groaning noises as the cabin interior flexed along with the airframe. There are lots of joints in the interior to let it shift as the airframe flexes in normal flight, and they'd all be getting a max-case workout.
                              An entire message thread on what it may be like:
                              http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/...d.php?t=520166

                              Read at your own risk.
                              I'm still here. Are you?

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                              • #30
                                Re: Air France 447

                                Matapule's two ta'ahines (daughters) were on a flight from Europe to California last year and somewhere over Greenland they hit severe turbulance. It was as you described. They thought they were going down at that moment. Fortunately, the flight eventually smoothed out and continued without incident. It did make on impression on them though.
                                Peace, Love, and Local Grindz

                                People who form FIRM opinions with so little knowledge only pretend to be open-minded. They select their facts like food from a buffet. David R. Dow

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