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Hurricane Flossie

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  • #61
    Re: Storm Systems

    This could be a real problem for the entire island chain. Time to go to Costco.

    Comment


    • #62
      Re: Storm Systems

      LOL Jeff, I like the way you think, and you do make a good point. Let's all prepare and sounds like we are, and the thing won't make a right turn.

      We have tarps, but are picking up some more large, plastic containers for water storage so that we can flush the toilets for days, if need be. Oh! and I need to pick up more drinking water. We still aren't clear if the bottled water can be two or that and a half year old, having stayed in utter darkness and be truly fine for drinking....per the plastic.
      Stop being lost in thought where our problems thrive.~

      Comment


      • #63
        Re: Storm Systems

        Good news, bad news. In this 11am update, the Hurricane Center says sustained winds dropped from 140 to 125 so Flossie is now a Category 3 instead of a Category 4... but of course that can change again, rapidly.
        Bad news is that the TSF winds had been expanded from 90 to 110 miles from the eye and have been increased even more to 140 miles in just the past few hours.
        Pressure is at 956 millibars, so that's still dropping too. (That's a bad thing, for the uninitiated.)
        With Flossie expected to come within 70 miles of South Point, well...

        [/gulp]
        .
        .

        That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.

        Comment


        • #64
          Re: Storm Systems

          This site seems pretty good for info on how to store water, what kind of containers to use and info on commercial units for filtration (even sea water converters):

          http://www.equipped.com/watrfood.htm

          and basic 72 hour supply kit:

          http://www.equipped.com/72hourkit.htm

          Comment


          • #65
            Re: Storm Systems

            Originally posted by Star of Gladness View Post
            This could be a real problem for the entire island chain. Time to go to Costco.
            Well, at least some people are taking it seriously. The news did say that people were at Home Depot buying supplies yesterday.

            Tiabla, I love the "Da Nile..." expression!
            Aloha,
            Evelyn
            Homespun Honolulu

            Comment


            • #66
              Re: Storm Systems

              Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 21
              Nws Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu Hi Ep092007
              1100 Am Hst Mon Aug 13 2007

              Hurricane Flossie Remains A Dangerous Hurricane With A Clear Well-defined Eye And Good Outflow...especially To The North. However...cloud Tops Have Warmed Slightly Over The Past Six Hours And Aircraft Recon Extrapolated A Surface Wind Speed Of 103 Kt At 1830z. This Contrasts With A Ci Of 6.0 Or 115 Kt From Jtwc And Sab At 1733z And 1800z...respectively. To Split The Difference...we Will Initialize Flossie At 110 Kt For This Run...making Flossie A Category 3 Hurricane On The Saffir Simpson Scale. This Drop In Intensity May Be Brief Since Satellite Loops Hint At A Cycle Of Eyewall Convective Intensity.

              Consensus Track Guidance Remains Tightly Packed And Very Close To Guidance Offered Six Hours Ago...but Gfdl Has Shifted To The Right. Bamd And Nogaps Are The Right And Left Outliers...respectively. Our Forecast Track Remains On The Right Side Of The Envelope Described By Consensus Guidance...with A Slight Speed Up Of A Knot Or Two Through 96 Hours. An Initial Motion Of 295 Degrees Means Flossie Will Take A Path Very Slightly To The Right Of The Previous Path Through 24 Hours...with The Paths Matching Up Afterwards. Intensity Will Remain At 110 Kt Through 24 Hours Based Mainly On Persistence...with A Gradual Decrease Expected Afterwards As Shear And Cooler Water Finally Take Their Toll. It Must Be Noted That Flossie Has Been Surprisingly Resilient To Cooler Ocean Temperatures So Far. At Any Rate...we Forecast Flossie To Remain At Hurricane Strength Through The Entire 120 Hour Forecast Period.

              We Have Increased The 34 Kt Wind Radius To 120 Nautical Miles Through The Northwest And Northeast Quadrants Through 24 Hours...based On Scatterometer And Aircraft Data. This Will Place The Big Island Of Hawaii Within The Radius Of Tropical Storm Force Winds Beginning Around Midday Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning Is Therefore In Effect For The Big Island Of Hawaii. A Hurricane Watch Remains In Effect. With The Current Forecast Track...the Islands From Maui County To Kauai County Are Not Expected To Require Any Types Of Watches. However...any Significant Deviation Of The Track Toward The North Might Result In Watches Or Warnings For Additional Areas In The Hawaiian Islands.

              Forecast Positions And Max Winds

              Initial 13/2100z 15.3n 150.6w 110 Kt
              12hr Vt 14/0600z 16.1n 152.4w 110 Kt
              24hr Vt 14/1800z 17.0n 154.7w 110 Kt
              36hr Vt 15/0600z 17.9n 156.8w 105 Kt
              48hr Vt 15/1800z 18.6n 158.9w 100 Kt
              72hr Vt 16/1800z 20.1n 163.0w 90 Kt
              96hr Vt 17/1800z 21.3n 167.0w 70 Kt
              120hr Vt 18/1800z 22.4n 171.3w 65 Kt
              Stop being lost in thought where our problems thrive.~

              Comment


              • #67
                Re: Storm Systems

                The two WalMart stores on the Big Island just announced that they'll be staying open 24 hours a day, effective immediately, so folks can stock up on emergency supplies.
                .
                .

                That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.

                Comment


                • #68
                  Re: Storm Systems

                  Originally posted by Pua'i Mana'o View Post
                  DOE hasn't officially announced it yet, but my (((sources))) tell me that B.I. schools will most likely be closed tomorrow.
                  Your sources were right on the money. It was just officially announced.
                  Best of luck to you over there, and keep us posted if and when you can, please.
                  .
                  .

                  That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Re: Storm Systems

                    Aloha from Kaua'i!

                    My husband works at the Lihu'e Costco and said that when they opened their doors this morning, there were well over 200 people standing in front waiting to come in -- he worked the "check out" area and in the first 1/2 hour after opening, he "checked out" 400 people!

                    They are out of "Kirkland" water, almost out of "Arrowhead" - and batteries and toilet paper are soon-to-be gone as well!

                    I'd say folks are finally reading the paper or watching the news and taking this thing seriously!

                    He said that WalMart had a similar scenario when they opened up this morning.

                    If we get a "Hurricane Warning" like the Big Island, there may be no water, toilet paper left to buy!

                    Malama Pono,

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Re: Storm Systems

                      Hubby just got home from City Mill in Mililani, and said that people are buying up the crank radios fast. We already have ours, but if anyone wants any, run for 'em fast.

                      I'm headed out pretty soon for more cases of drinking water. Otherwise, we're ready as we can be.

                      Praying for Big island and for us all.
                      Stop being lost in thought where our problems thrive.~

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Re: Storm Systems

                        aloha.....just returned from kona to my home on kealakekua bay.....in town at home depot and lowes there didnt seem to be many people getting supplies.....costco was another story.......lotsa tp and water going out the door...walmart in hilo and kona will now be open 24 hrs....at 5pm each district on hawaii will open up a shelter for those that will feel more secure there.....many folks are older and infirm may not want to deal with preparedness issues around ther home and walk away till things calm down.... it seems that civil defense is up to speed but the radio and tv while mentioning the storm are not covering it very much.
                        i talked to about a dozen people in town that werent aware of it.
                        just checked the tracking and reports and it seems that for sure it will be windy and rainy.....so back to nailing things down.....
                        steve
                        the bigger the government the smaller the citizen.

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Re: Storm Systems

                          ugh.

                          it is sooo humid right now. No wind whatsoever (evil system to the SE of me with the humiliating name is sucking it all up!)

                          Ka'u is going to get hammered. Puna will too- everyone is going to have full catchment tanks by tmorrow noon. If the 'cane wings close to Kona, the draft back is going to push strong winds through the two mauna and give Hilo one really wicked windstorm.

                          My biggest fear is my roof. I really like it and want it to stay on my house, without any trees knocking it in or wind blowing it off. If that wish comes true, everything else is gravy.

                          pax

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            Re: Storm Systems

                            Originally posted by Pua'i Mana'o View Post
                            (evil system to the SE of me with the humiliating name is sucking it all up!)
                            Would it feel any less oppressively humid if the name were Hawaiianized? What would the Hawaiianized version of Flossie be, anyway -- Puloki?

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Re: Storm Systems

                              The 2pm advisory (21A) is out for Flossie. Comparing the 11am (#21) and the 2pm (#21A) advisories you get:

                              1. Eye location lat./long. - 15.3N 150.6W (#21) 15.6N 151.5W (#21A)
                              2. distance from Hilo - 425 miles SE (#21) 365 miles SE (#21A)
                              3. distance from Honolulu - 635 miles SE (#21) 570 miles SE (#21A)

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Re: Storm Systems

                                I had gotten home this am from work, looked at the satellite images and went to sleep. I got up this afternoon and saw the updated satellite images.The sucker has gotten bigger. It kinda freaks me out about this, as my parents have a house in Discovery Harbour, above South Point. It was recently completed in 2004. Its like my parents baby. I hope it remains intact

                                Here is the 200PM advisory on this hurricane.. not good.

                                http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/p...ata/HFO/TCPCP2
                                Check out my blog on Kona issues :
                                The Kona Blog

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