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  #26  
Old November 10th, 2009, 01:58 PM
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craigwatanabe craigwatanabe is offline
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Default Re: Hawaii's Economy - Tuff Days Ahead?

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Originally Posted by Bobinator View Post
As far as I know, it's a foregone conclusion. It's impossible to recover by getting more and more in debt.
The US government is basically paying bills with credit cards. Eventually it'll catch up.

If you knew death was near and you had a whole box of checks and you had no integrity. I can see someone writing bad checks and living for the moment. Hmmmm...what does Obama know that we don't? End of the World? Hmmmmm......well 2012 is right around the corner!
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  #27  
Old November 10th, 2009, 03:12 PM
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cynsaligia cynsaligia is offline
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Default Re: Hawaii's Economy - Tuff Days Ahead?

having barely passed lou rose's econ class (what? i was distracted by (1) rose's tiresome tirades against rail and (2) by a cute blond classmate who kinda looked like tom cruise. said blond, years later, presented me with a half carat, VS1, E color diamond engagement ring that i gave back several months afterward), i think i'm qualified enough to say your checkbook analogy doesn't quite work if you're applying it to obama's treatment of the current american economy (you never know these days; apparently there is a new fad where readers are not to assume one sentence has anything to do with its immediate predecessor).

again, having barely passed lou rose's econ class, i would never desire to read or be able to comprehend john maynard keynes's magnum opus, but i would guess that the punahou grad at least got the presidential version of sparknotes. per richard posner, that oft-right-leaning federal circuit court judge and proponent of cost-benefit analysis:
Quote:
Fortunately, there is more that government can do to arrest a downward economic spiral besides pushing down interest rates. It can offset the decline in private consumption and investment in a recession or a depression by increasing public investment. When we say that the government builds highways, we mean it buys highways from private contractors. And the more it buys, the more that investment--and because of the multiplier effect, the more that income, output, and employment--are stimulated. And because private decisions to invest and to consume are influenced by confidence in the future, or the lack thereof, the government must do everything it can to convince businessmen and consumers that it is resolute and competent in working for economic recovery. An ambitious public-works program can be a confidence builder. It shows that government means (to help) business. "The return of confidence," Keynes explains, "is the aspect of the slump which bankers and businessmen have been right in emphasizing, and which the economists who have put their faith in a ‘purely monetary' remedy have underestimated." In a possible gesture toward Roosevelt's first inaugural ("we have nothing to fear but fear itself"), Keynes remarks upon "the uncontrollable and disobedient psychology of the business world."

But for a confidence-building public-works program to be effective in arresting an economic collapse, the government must be able to finance its increased spending by means that do not reduce private spending commensurately. If it finances the program by taxation, it will be draining cash from the economy at the same time that it is injecting cash into it. But if it borrows to finance the program (deficit spending), or finances it with new money created by the Federal Reserve, the costs may be deferred until the economy is well on the way to recovery and can afford to pay them without endangering economic stability. When investors passively save rather than actively invest, government can borrow their savings (as by selling them government bonds) and use the money for active investment. That is the essential Keynesian prescription for fighting depressions.

Keynes's emphasis on consumption as the driver of active investment and hence of economic growth may seem to give his theory a hedonistic flavor. He was indeed hostile to thrift, which is another name for hoarding. We have seen the damaging effects of thrift in the current downturn, in which rich people's forswearing luxury purchases in the name of thrift has reduced employment in the retail sector, thus deepening the downturn. This is an example of the "paradox of thrift." "Prodigality is a vice that is prejudicial to the Man, but not to trade," in the words of the seventeenth-century economist Nicholas Barbon, quoted by Keynes. (The full paradox of thrift is that, if incomes fall far enough because people are saving rather than consuming, savings will actually decline.)
i'll remind you that i barely passed lou rose's econ class, so i'll unabashedly admit i am completely inept to argue the merits or faults of keynesian theory. i'm just sayin that obama probably looked to a dead white guy who's been pushing daisies for about 60 years and is hoping that the american economy can sprout verdantly from his ashes.
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  #28  
Old November 10th, 2009, 07:16 PM
Bobinator Bobinator is offline
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Default Re: Hawaii's Economy - Tuff Days Ahead?

Quote:
Originally Posted by craigwatanabe View Post
The US government is basically paying bills with credit cards. Eventually it'll catch up.

If you knew death was near and you had a whole box of checks and you had no integrity. I can see someone writing bad checks and living for the moment. Hmmmm...what does Obama know that we don't? End of the World? Hmmmmm......well 2012 is right around the corner!
Try saying, "N-E-W W-O-R-L-D O-R-D-E-R"!
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  #29  
Old November 10th, 2009, 08:03 PM
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matapule matapule is offline
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Default Re: Hawaii's Economy - Tuff Days Ahead?

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Originally Posted by Bobinator View Post
Try saying, "N-E-W W-O-R-L-D O-R-D-E-R"!
Well, you could say "new world order", but if you look at the history, it is interesting to note when it started.

The US had an essentially balanced budget through the end of the Carter Administration. In other words, the US economy lived within its means, the national income covered the national debt.

That changed with the Reagan Administration. The US government started spending more than the revenue it generated. We, the US economy started living off a national credit card.

That trend continued during the administration of Bush 1, who increased the debt that Reagan had started.

Wild Bill Clinton was able to stem the tide during his administration. He didn't reduce the national debt, but he didn't increase it either. He ran his administration on a balanced budget that neither increased nor decreased the national debt.

And then along came Bush 2. During his 8 year reign, he increased the national debt three fold. He really put the economy on the credit card (with China primarily holding the debt).

Obama has done the right thing with his stimulus package to keep the US economy out of bankruptcy. My biggest fear is that he has not spent enough on the stimulus. I think we may need to spend more in order to reverse the trend by establishing the economy on firm footing. It is too early in the Obama Administration to blame him for a continuation of the "new world order" established by the last three Repub Administrations. He hasn't even completed one year of tenure and it is too soon to draw conclusions. I am adopting a wait and see attitude.

I am not quoting from or referring to any website. These are my own thoughts and my own words. I know that Rimbarf likes to refer to the "new world order" on his program, but let's see if anyone on HT has any original thoughts if you wish to disagree.
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  #30  
Old November 10th, 2009, 08:54 PM
Bobinator Bobinator is offline
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Default Re: Hawaii's Economy - Tuff Days Ahead?

Excuse me, but all the Presidents, starting with Reagan all the way down to Obama, spoke of the New World Order. Clinton made hundreds of speeches quoting the NWO. So with the Bushes. Obama is the absolute worse. He's plowing forward with approving NWO policies. Have you been listening to his speeches lately? Or what Tim Geitner and Obama's other Czars have been saying at International Conferences, like the G20?

Here's a news article to confirm what I said, just sos you know I'm not making things up- http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...s-markets.html

All of us need to put aside our political biases and start applying equal standards to all our politicians. Don't listen to what they say. Watch what they do.

For example, when Obama says his Health care reform plan doesn't include insuring illegal aliens, this is what he really means- http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/o...mo_code=8945-1

As far as I'm concerned, they're all corrupt in Washington. Well, maybe except Ron Paul.
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  #31  
Old November 12th, 2009, 01:43 AM
Walkoff Balk Walkoff Balk is offline
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Default Re: Hawaii's Economy - Tuff Days Ahead?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Ten-mo....html?x=0&.v=7

We're just outside the top ten. We still have a WAC schedule.
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