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  #1  
Old August 11th, 2007, 02:04 PM
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Default Hurricane Flossie

Flossie's current position...



The weather in Honolulu this morning has that "calm before the storm" aura to it (almost ZERO wind), with cloud forms that appear to be distant spin-off from Flossie.

I'll get some pics of surf impact at China Walls on Tuesday.
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  #2  
Old August 11th, 2007, 02:55 PM
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Default Re: Storm Systems

This morning Hurricane Flossie has been upgraded to a Category 4 storm:

http://starbulletin.com/breaking/breaking.php?id=6087

Maximum sustained winds @ 132 mph.

Hopefully this thing will weaken in the next few days and stay south.
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Old August 11th, 2007, 03:48 PM
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Default Re: Storm Systems

Quote:
Originally Posted by mel View Post
This morning Hurricane Flossie has been upgraded to a Category 4 storm[...]
Whether Flossie hits us or not, I'm now wondering whether I'm safer in a 2nd floor, oceanfront condo where evacuation means only 1 flight of stairs if the electricity goes out...or...a condo on the 19th floor with wall to wall picture windows that face north where evacuation means 18 flights of stairs. If no evacuation, then one risks getting trapped inside (assuming one isn't outside!) with no electricity for an undetermined amount of time.

If Flossie does change course and hit us, the time frame mentioned in the link is the exact time frame I've arranged to stay in my daughter's 36th floor condo that faces the ocean as Monday is the day my bathtub gets refinished and I can't use it for 3 days!!!

Decisions...decisions...
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  #4  
Old August 11th, 2007, 05:58 PM
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Unhappy Re: Storm Systems

Updated via hawaii weather edu...as of 1153am, radar shows hurricane making very slight but significant turn to the northwest or slight mauka ewabound...I dont think this hurricane is to be taken lightly...despite others in the recent past...you can clik the pix and you can see the motion of it on http://weather.hawaii.edu

Despite its name, it not be taken so humorously...cuz it may pack a punch IF it decides to NAIL Hawaii...
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Old August 11th, 2007, 06:35 PM
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Default Re: Storm Systems

Thank you for the university map link! Do you or anyone have a link to the most recent measurements of Sea Surface Temps? the ones I found last years are so vague, just colored areas that represent temps. I mean I am asking for a list of the temps around us, sorry, as I do see the other map on that page should be representative of what I am asking for. then again maybe not, but there are cooler and warmer areas, per the color. help! LOL
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Old August 11th, 2007, 08:25 PM
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Default Re: Storm Systems

Here's that forecast from 11 AM from the NOAA:

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/p...ata/HFO/TCPCP2

Next forecast is at 5:PM HST.
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  #7  
Old August 11th, 2007, 08:49 PM
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Default Re: Storm Systems

Not encouraging is this quote from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center regarding the Flossie forecast
Quote:
"LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY."
I'm concerned that they offer no prognostic reasoning for the forecast.
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  #8  
Old August 11th, 2007, 10:09 PM
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Default Re: Storm Systems

Quote:
Originally Posted by tutusue View Post
Whether Flossie hits us or not, I'm now wondering whether I'm safer in a 2nd floor, oceanfront condo where evacuation means only 1 flight of stairs if the electricity goes out
I think you'd want to be somewhere where you don't have to evacuate. I don't think I'd like to be ocean front. I'd be concerned the storm surge will rip though the bottom floors. Maybe your building can take it, maybe not. Even if it stays standing, all that damage on the bottom floor probably means a long time before utilities can be restored.

With the 19th floor, you can ride out the storm and see what your options are.
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  #9  
Old August 11th, 2007, 11:00 PM
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Default Re: Storm Systems

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Originally Posted by GeckoGeek View Post
I think you'd want to be somewhere where you don't have to evacuate. I don't think I'd like to be ocean front. I'd be concerned the storm surge will rip though the bottom floors. Maybe your building can take it, maybe not. Even if it stays standing, all that damage on the bottom floor probably means a long time before utilities can be restored.

With the 19th floor, you can ride out the storm and see what your options are.
Thanks, GG. That's helpful.

My Makaha condo building was the hardest hit building on Oahu during Iniki. It ceased being oceanfront and became an island onto itself!!! My 2nd floor unit was only a half floor above the water for a short while. The homes directly across Farrington Hwy. were also damaged by the surge. Yes, the buildings in my complex withstood the storm. And, yes, every ground floor unit was wiped out. The surge blew out all the ocean facing, sliding glass door walls on that floor, raced thru the units and blew out the bedroom windows at the rear of each unit, the water continuing across the property and across the highway. When it retreated, bathtubs, major appliances and furniture were sucked out and deposited on the beach. I think I got electricity back within 4-5 days or so. Can't remember exactly. I was on the mainland at the time and got an emergency flight back the next day.

I don't mind riding out the storm on the 19th or 36th floor. My biggest concern is being trapped by no electricity. There's always the fire exit, I s'pose!
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  #10  
Old August 11th, 2007, 11:27 PM
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Smile Re: Storm Systems

Aloha from Kaua'i!

Well, I'm just like everyone else here -- watching the "updates" on the storm tracking and hearing from my hubby that our Costco is starting to feel the effects of the possibility of anything major hitting us -- unlike back in '92 when we didn't have a Costco!

I wonder too if my 2-story condo unit that was built back in the 1970's (and which surprisingly came through Iniki quite well!) will withstand another one!

This is what you get when you have a day to watch TV and putz around on the computer -- too much info on a might-be storm!

Malama Pono,
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  #11  
Old August 12th, 2007, 01:12 AM
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Default Re: Storm Systems

NOAA's current GOES image shows Flossie steering further north-west towards that 15th latitude line, which is worth some concern. There's a prominent "eye", so she's really turnin' n' burnin'.

Current conditions in Waikiki are completely covered overcast with a slight breeze. Surf is about 2-3 feet, with some rather nice right pitches. There were also some rain squalls about a mile off-shore that came and went.

Back to you Joe.
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Old August 12th, 2007, 01:35 AM
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Default Re: Storm Systems

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pomai View Post
[...]Back to you Joe.
Roving weather reporter, tutusue, here. Joe's indisposed at the moment!

Manoa Valley was socked in most of the time that I was at home today. Spent some time in Kakaako, Kahala and Moiliili. Saw a few drizzles but not enough to turn on the windshield wipers but for one, quick, wipe. It currently looks like it might be raining towards downtown. This can't be Flossie related...can it? As a roving weather reporter you'd think I'd know what the h3!! I was talking about!

Where's Guy when I need him?!!!
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  #13  
Old August 12th, 2007, 02:01 AM
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Default Re: Storm Systems

Quote:
Originally Posted by tutusue View Post
This can't be Flossie related...can it? Where's Guy when I need him?!!!
I'm a guy, so I'll answer that one, Tutu. It's too early to feel any effects of Flossie, even from its outer fringes. Ditto for Sunday. Monday, maybe but probably not. Tuesday, probably yes.
It's too soon to be more than just somewhat concerned. By Sunday night we'll have a much better feel for strength and direction and potential impact.
Back to you in the studio.
Joe? Joe?! Get off the throne, dammit! We're live in three... two... one...

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  #14  
Old August 12th, 2007, 02:27 AM
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Default Re: Hurricane Flossie

Look at the radar image at this link and you can clearly see that today's clouds aren't part of Hurricane Flossie.
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Old August 12th, 2007, 02:54 AM
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Default Re: Storm Systems

And at this link is an animated satellite image of Flossie.

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  #16  
Old August 12th, 2007, 03:07 AM
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Default Re: Storm Systems

Quote:
Originally Posted by LikaNui View Post
And at this link is an animated satellite image of Flossie.
I notice the animated image is from AccuWeather. Back in 1992 KGMB TV caught some big flack for using AccuWeather and followed their prediction that Hurricane Iniki would hit Honolulu, while the NOAA I think predicted a miss for Honolulu and having it hit Kauai.... which is what really happened.

I wonder if any of the local stations are using AccuWeather today? It would seem the NOAA is probably better trusted.

That being said, KFVE TV's 9 o'clock newscast says that winds are now at 140 mph.
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Old August 12th, 2007, 05:35 AM
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Default Re: Storm Systems

HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
0900 UTC SUN AUG 12 2007

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 143.5W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT


Source, NOAA
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  #18  
Old August 12th, 2007, 06:31 AM
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Default Re: Storm Systems

This is an interesting AP statistic...

Quote:
The islands get an average of 4.5 tropical cyclones a year and one hurricane about every 15 years. Last year, the central Pacific had five tropical cyclones after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted two to three.
Currently she's here, holding a steady westerly course, behaving and remaining south of the Hawaiian chain.

Back to you Joe.
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  #19  
Old August 12th, 2007, 06:46 AM
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Default Re: Storm Systems

Flossie for mayor!
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  #20  
Old August 12th, 2007, 01:05 PM
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Default Re: Storm Systems

Today's 5AM storm report: NOAA Link

Quote:
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FLOSSIE CONTINUES OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN...

AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 144.6 WEST OR ABOUT 810 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 1020 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.

FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
They say it's supposed to weaken... hasn't done so yet..
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Old August 12th, 2007, 01:09 PM
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Default Re: Storm Systems

Quote:
Originally Posted by mel View Post
Today's 5AM storm report: NOAA Link



They say it's supposed to weaken... hasn't done so yet..
Think POSITIVE...POSITIVE...It's not going to happen.

It will be only rain.

Auntie Lynn
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  #22  
Old August 12th, 2007, 02:11 PM
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Default Re: Storm Systems

I think the old saying, "hope for the best, prepare for the worst" applies here. Reality so far is with the latter... "prepare for the worst". Next NOAA report is at 11 AM HST.
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  #23  
Old August 12th, 2007, 02:39 PM
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Default Re: Storm Systems

Today...



Yesterday...

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  #24  
Old August 12th, 2007, 02:46 PM
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Default Re: Storm Systems

Current forecast shows south point of the Big Island will be hit with winds greater then 39MPH. Don't just focus on the eye. The storm is large and the winds extend quite some distance from the eye.
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  #25  
Old August 12th, 2007, 02:51 PM
hifotog hifotog is offline
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Unhappy Re: Storm Systems

You know...the 1 thing thats getting to me is that in the hawaii weather.edu website, they got NO postings up for any kinda alert for this storm...what? Are they waiting till the "physical effects" start to happen before they say something? I think its due to the other past hurricanes quickly becoming TS to Depressions, making them decide NOT to post any alerts or advisories. As mentioned in my past posts....each 1/2 hr of monitoring Flossie, it inches closer to the isles AND has that west-northwestardly track....I think we all should prepare our essentials just in case....since its a sunday and NOT a Monday....we ALL shouldnt wait till last minute and procrastinate. Remember, we are NOT looking at effects at the center and few hundred miles then...the range of physical effects pose extends WAY beyond this...
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