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  #1  
Old March 18th, 2008, 02:29 PM
Bobinator Bobinator is offline
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Default Are we headed for a depression?

I heard Gerald Celente on talk radio last night. He's the founder of the Trends Research Institute. He's internationally known, and has been on Larry King Live, Oprah, CNN, and a whole host of other venues. He predicted many things in the past, including the 1987 stock market crash. He has some rather dire predictions for the United States and eventually the world economy and recommends doing everything you can to pay off debt and minimize expeditures. Everything he's predicted regarding the economy has come to past or is in progress. I think he's really on to something. If you think gas will cap at $4/gallon, you might want to think again...
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  #2  
Old March 19th, 2008, 03:33 AM
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Default Re: Are we headed for a depression?

I'm sure that none of you will be surprised that I bring this thread up, yet again http://www.hawaiithreads.com/showthr...light=pandemic as it's always good to be prepared for anything, poverty included.
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Old March 19th, 2008, 03:45 AM
WindwardOahuRN WindwardOahuRN is offline
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Default Re: Are we headed for a depression?

We just filled out mandatory info sheets at work where we provided info regarding the number of people in our household and whether or not those people were allergic to any medications, specifically antibiotics.
The reason? Oh, just in case there is a pandemic or some such disaster. It seems we'll get first dibs on meds. I guess they want the health care professionals up and running in such an event.
This is the very first time I've been asked to provide such info. Makes you wonder if someone knows something and isn't sharing.
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Old March 19th, 2008, 04:16 AM
Karen Karen is offline
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Default Re: Are we headed for a depression?

YES....I believe we "are headed" to absolute depression but....I am not yet convinced, thank God that we are going to enter and spend some years in depression.

I see that the Fed is panicked and they freaked out and lowered an interest rate on a sunday! they then lowered another one today. They have done such rare and creative things that I at least need the Dummies series book on Economics to understand WHAT they really did, but suffice it to say that plenty of people have confirmed that what they have done, more than one thing.....hasn't been done since the Great Depression. THAT....speaks volumes.

Mama always said that actions speak louder than words and the Fed is working to prevent Depression. they aren't just working to try to give us a softer vs. harder recession.

Dang! it was ominous when we started our year with Countrywide, Citibank and Merrell Lynch all in deep trouble. Since january? nothing but more and worse news, dramatic news.

Chrysler told all employees worldwide that they will take a mandatory two week vacation in July. Delta is just now offering approximately half of their entire work force.....30,000 a severance package for early retirement....read that....just to quit!

Sheesh.... it's BAD and unlike us....the Fed probably has data we can't see and won't get wind of. What huge company is next? How is The Principal Group that so many 401Ks are invested in, and how's Metlife, for example? I have to wonder. Old companies have fallen into deep trouble, like Citi...so, how's the really old Liberty Mutual?

Can this be prevented? Can we not go into depression? Praying to God so.....these islands are funded by tourism...dear God, a depression?!!

There are so many ways to "cook the books" and do what some call legal, but really "creative" ways to move money around in these modern times.....and this is why I suspect we don't yet know what the big wallstreet and the Fed knows...names of some other HUGE companies that are in deep trouble and the Fed is trying to prevent a gigantic loss of jobs by hoping to help the companies not yet completely bankrupt or whatever we should call them.
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Old March 19th, 2008, 04:35 AM
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Default Re: Are we headed for a depression?

to clarify the above post about Delta Air Lines, the newspaper titles are a bit over dramatic, the truth is they are offering 30,000 employees who are eligible, but will only accept 2,000 of those for severance. That is not as dramatic as the headlines make it sound and not uncommon in business in general:

Quote:
ATLANTA - Delta Air Lines, faced with a weak economy, dimmer hopes of a merger with Northwest Airlines Corp. and record fuel prices, said yesterday that it would offer voluntary severance payouts to about 30,000 employees - more than half its work force - and cut U.S. capacity an extra 5 percent.

Delta hopes to reduce 2,000 non-pilot jobs in the United States, or 3.6 percent of its work force, through buyouts and voluntary retirements for which more than half its employees are eligible, wrote Chief Executive Officer Richard H. Anderson and President Ed Bastian in a memo yesterday.
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Old March 19th, 2008, 02:43 PM
Karen Karen is offline
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Default Re: Are we headed for a depression?

Thank you, Kaukura! whew...none of the few news sources I read yesterday, nor the one I heard broadcast said a thing about them having a set amount that they will accept and there is a huge difference between 30,000 and 2,000. (Delta was indeed in financial trouble how long ago? Hope they aren't, now)
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Old March 19th, 2008, 04:34 PM
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Default Re: Are we headed for a depression?

Man when the stocks fall a few hundred suddenly we're a bunch of chicken littles. It wasn't that long ago when the Dow Jones Industrial average broke headlines when it rose above 1000.

But to prepare one must start hedging all investments. Stuff like precious metals seem to work during these times. And remember the Great Depression had it's downfalls, but it did create quite a few millionaires as well. Money doesn't hide it just get's unproportionally divided making the rich get richer and...well you know the rest.
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Old March 19th, 2008, 09:47 PM
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Pua'i Mana'o Pua'i Mana'o is offline
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Default Re: Are we headed for a depression?

::::looks left
looks right::::

um, hello? Havenʻt you all lived in the same Hawaiʻi as me since the 1980s? It was only within the last decade that I stopped saying that I have spent my entire adult life in a bear market.

Let's review:

-Japanese real estate bubble bursts in the mid-1980s (when I graduated from high school)
-negative equity is a real issue for Hawaiʻi from 1988-1994, and financing options that fleece us we can enjoy today were not available then.
-Japanese tourists, who drive the industry, were at an all-time low, consistently, for two decades, because our economy seems to be as tied to Asia as it is our US counterparts.

So get a trade, get a grip on your finances, and get ready for the lean times. They'll wizen the arrogance out of us, as they had back then. Ten years isn't long enough to make us forget all of that, is it? Besides, this is how its supposed to happen--economies are cyclical, as is everything else.

Chill.
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Old March 19th, 2008, 10:03 PM
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Default Re: Are we headed for a depression?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pua'i Mana'o View Post
::::looks left
looks right::::

Besides, this is how its supposed to happen--economies are cyclical, as is everything else.

Chill.
I'm not chillin, I'm gellin As you said these things are cyclical and it's wise to follow these and take advantage of both the down and upswings. When 9-11 hit I called my broker and told him to buy up as much as I could afford on stocks that had plummeted in the hours after the twin towers fell.

Same thing goes for home ownership. People are buying homes that are overpriced but low interest rates. That's rediculous! I tell my friends to buy when housing prices are at their lowest and interest rates are higher. Eventually the rates will drop as housing inventory goes up (mostly from foreclosures). That triggers another interest rate drop to encourage home buying. That's when it's time to refinance your higher interest rate mortgage loan into something more manageable.

You can renegotiate your interest rate on your mortgage, but you cannot renegotiate the purchase price of your home.

Depression? The US dollar would have to practically bust wide open for that to happen, and no world market would allow that to happen as the US dollar is the hedge against all other foreign markets.
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Old March 19th, 2008, 10:13 PM
Karen Karen is offline
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Default Re: Are we headed for a depression?

"Man when the stocks fall a few hundred suddenly we're a bunch of chicken littles."

Not all of us! The stock market has not been hardly even peripheral to what I've been posting about on this thread and the "polls" one. big deal, an inflated market went down a bit, heck, for pure correction....the market hasn't gone down nearly enough....if only this were a mere correction. It isn't...because it is not focused on the stock market.

This is about the country's largest mortgage company being in deep doo, it's oldest or biggest bank, dang I read so many reports but lack a photographic memory, and it's largest stock brokerage firm....all being in horrible trouble at the very same time, and....many other companies, but that isn't all. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae in financial trouble, too, along with a ton of smaller mortgage companies belly-up.

In fact, it's about more large things, some huge.....than my busy self can remember to type at the moment. I wish this was a stock market upset, but it isn't, and oh yeah, that dollar that it was said is the hedge for the world....cough cough....not now, it isn't. It's been in free fall, and oh yeah....

all of my life we Texas rednecks joked about putting money away into a Swiss bank account cuz they have been the untouchables for so long, and seemingly immune to major financial problems....not anymore! I don't have it's proper name but the biggest bank in Switzerland lost 8 BILLION....something like that, last year. It even reportedly operated in the red last year....why? because of being heavily involved in our economy. This has been unheard of in my lifetime or someone failed to report on it...Swiss banks in severe pain.

We may not arrive into depression but we are headed there. Watch and listen and as the news continues, or will these huge and really bad reports magically cease in april?

The Federal Reserve just used more than one "creative fix" that had not been used since the Great Depression but we've had how many recessions since then? That...tells me a lot and I am sorry...it ain't good. No chicken little here, but maybe that's the best way to deal with it all and not let it bother us....just say it's "the sky is falling" doomsayers and forget about it.
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Old March 19th, 2008, 10:25 PM
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Default Re: Are we headed for a depression?

[QUOTE=Karen;188210it was said is the hedge for the world....cough cough....not now, it isn't. It's been in free fall, and oh yeah....

No chicken little here, but maybe that's the best way to deal with it all and not let it bother us....just say it's "the sky is falling" doomsayers and forget about it.[/QUOTE]

When the US dollar coughs the world does get sick but I wouldn't say the dollar is in a free fall. It may be down but by far it is still a powerful currency that foreign countries rate their currency against.
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Old March 19th, 2008, 10:31 PM
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Default Re: Are we headed for a depression?

It may not be in freefall today, Haven't checked, but it literally has been many days in the last couple of weeks. I wish I had a chocolate bar for every time Perry and Price have reported in the last oh....3 weeks...."the dollar hit an alltime low today" or words to that effect.

Editing this in....just found more about Chrysler....they have a workforce of 44,000 and are aiming to reduce that by 8,000 to 10,000 workers.

Delta Airlines does say that if more than 2,000 of its employees agree to accept the severance package that more will be allowed to leave.

United Air is grounding 20 planes to save money. Sounds like they aren't hurting as badly as.

Last edited by Karen; March 19th, 2008 at 10:43 PM.
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Old March 19th, 2008, 10:43 PM
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Default Re: Are we headed for a depression?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Karen View Post
It may not be in freefall today, Haven't checked, but it literally has been many days in the last couple of weeks. I wish I had a chocolate bar for every time Perry and Price have reported in the last oh....3 weeks...."the dollar hit an alltime low today" or words to that effect.
If you notice everytime Michael W. Perry announces the price of Gold, Larry Price will "Boo" Apparently some of us bought gold when it almost hit $1000/oz.

Anyway economists always tell consumers that the market needs to adjust. Well the last time they said that, 9-11 hit and the stock market adjusted just like they promised.

I think from previous bull markets where the dollar was just shooting up like a rocket with nothing to support it's gains, an adjustment was needed and we're feeling it right now.

To me we're not heading into a depression, the stock market is merely correcting itself if you can believe that.
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Old March 19th, 2008, 10:47 PM
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Default Re: Are we headed for a depression?

You may be right about the market, as I agree it can correct more from its ridiculous level. The market just isn't my focus at this time.

If the market were the only news right now, or the market and JUST...countrywide, for instance...no biggee but then if that were the case....the Fed would not be using "creative tools" that is didn't use through all of the other recessions since 1929, for example. See? What is the Fed so concerned about that is making it use tools for the very first time since the Great depression?

PS, Price didn't buy at near 1000.....he just sold his gold not long ago. They've talked about that. I think he kept boo'ing for fun, or cuz he wished he could make even more and he may have sold like back during or even before the holidays. I dunno...I heard them say he did sell but since uh....last oct...life's been one busy blur, lol.

Rut row....here's the dollar to euro chart....about middle of the page and the last column is March....no leveling at all this month... but did bounce up for a day or two...no wonder so many newssources are calling this a free fall. I think it is.

http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/co...submit=Convert

Last edited by Karen; March 19th, 2008 at 10:53 PM.
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Old March 19th, 2008, 11:13 PM
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Default Re: Are we headed for a depression?

Well come on now look at that chart and look at the incremental changes over an entire year that's projected. Yes it's dropping but at one-cent per month for a 10-month period only equates to a 10% drop over a year's period. Remember we're in an election year and the dollar fluctuates wildly during the period fronting the General election.

I've seen stock drop faster than that. Currency may be one way to track an economy however it's also a volatile way as well.

As for Countrywide. The feds had to help them out because so many people were affected by their sub-prime lending habits. This isn't the first time there was a Government bail out of a private corporation. Remember Boeing?

That time the US Government had to step in simply because of the defense contracts that needed to be fulfilled for military purposes. Countrywide needs a bail out because if it defaults, so do many home owners and right now there's too much equity to be foreclosed on for our economy to absorb. A depression? No way. Not all homebuyers borrowed thru unscrupulous lenders.

Many will find another way to dig themselves out of their financial mess thru refinancing. Lenders are already slackening their policies on late fees. Some have even renegotiated their APR's with lenders as most lenders need cash flow to keep their business going. Forclosure doesn't creat cash flow it creates unneeded capital or as we like to call it a white elephant.


If lenders loosen their policies on collection the government will bail them out with needed cash. But this also means a weaker dollar as federal reserve capital is used.
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Old March 20th, 2008, 02:33 AM
Karen Karen is offline
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Default Re: Are we headed for a depression?

Thanks for continuing, Craig. We clearly see this differently and nuttin wrong with this.

Will you please give me your thoughts on this question of mine?

"What is the Fed so concerned about that is making it use tools for the first time since the Great depression?"

Thanks~
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Old March 20th, 2008, 02:54 AM
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Default Re: Are we headed for a depression?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Karen View Post
Thanks for continuing, Craig. We clearly see this differently and nuttin wrong with this.

Will you please give me your thoughts on this question of mine?

"What is the Fed so concerned about that is making it use tools for the first time since the Great depression?"

Thanks~

I believe it's whomever decides to be in charge of the Federal Reserve will determine if any tools were to be used. In the Great Depression we probably never had these creative tools to work with in the first place. Thru time and experiences we've learned to make course adjustments by becoming "creative" and thinking outside the box.

Anyway I really am trying to keep this light but I keep forgetting to put those icons to keep it that way, sorry. So I'm sorry too if I'm sounding too harsh, I really am being light hearted about this. I do feel however we aren't heading into another depression simply because of the way the dollar is reacting to foreign currencies. But if you do want to hedge your investments against the possibility of one, precious metals are the best way to do so.

Oh yeah and before I forget...
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Old March 20th, 2008, 08:57 PM
Karen Karen is offline
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Default Re: Are we headed for a depression?

Craig, yes, we did have the tools available I am speaking about. Report after report that I found yesterday stated that the fed last used certain tools in the Great Depression, in other words.....this is the first time SINCE...then.

Uh oh....this is huge...how many more reports like this shall we be learning about??

"NYTimes.com
CIT Group Draws on Its Credit Line
Thursday March 20, 11:38 pm ET
By REUTERS


CIT Group, the commercial finance company, said Thursday that it was drawing on $7.3 billion of bank lines to help conduct daily operations, a move that highlights the commercial finance company’s difficulty in raising cash to pay off debt."


(PS, no you are not sounding "too harsh." I know that the written word can be the blogger's own worst enemy and this goes for forum posters, also. It is sooo dang easily misinterpreted that it's a wonder we don't have wars of words here regularly. You sound fine to me. This subject is what is so harsh.)

PS...one more....dang and this does speak of something, I think, that was not done in the Great Depression.

Investment Firms Tap Fed for Billions
Thursday March 20, 5:03 pm ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Investment Houses Borrow Billions From Fed's Emergency Lending Program


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Big Wall Street investment companies are taking advantage of the Federal Reserve's unprecedented offer to secure emergency loans, the central bank reported Thursday.
The lending is part of a major effort by the Fed to help a financial system in danger of freezing.


Those large firms averaged $13.4 billion in daily borrowing over the past week from the new lending facility. The report does not identify the borrowers.

The Fed, in a bold move Sunday, agreed for the first time to let big investment houses get emergency loans directly from the central bank."

"

Last edited by Karen; March 20th, 2008 at 09:02 PM.
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Old March 21st, 2008, 02:57 AM
Karen Karen is offline
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Default Re: Are we headed for a depression?

Now, a newspaper giant reports in...last year made a lot of money, right now...in the red in a huge way!

AP
Tribune Co. Posts $78M 4Q Loss

Thursday March 20, 10:34 pm ET
By Dave Carpenter, AP Business Writer
Tribune Co. Reports 4Q Loss; Zell Still Sees 'Significant Opportunity'

CHICAGO (AP) -- Media conglomerate Tribune Co. reported a $78 million fourth-quarter loss from continuing operations Thursday as it copes with the historic downturn in the newspaper industry.
Chairman and CEO Sam Zell also confirmed that the company has begun a strategic review of assets, as a report surfaced that News Corp. chairman Rupert Murdoch has made a bid for Tribune's Long Island-based Newsday

The fourth-quarter loss was a reversal from the $233 million gain from continuing operations a year earlier.
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Old March 24th, 2008, 04:43 PM
Bobinator Bobinator is offline
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Default Re: Are we headed for a depression?

Quote:
Originally Posted by craigwatanabe View Post
I believe it's whomever decides to be in charge of the Federal Reserve will determine if any tools were to be used. In the Great Depression we probably never had these creative tools to work with in the first place. Thru time and experiences we've learned to make course adjustments by becoming "creative" and thinking outside the box.

Anyway I really am trying to keep this light but I keep forgetting to put those icons to keep it that way, sorry. So I'm sorry too if I'm sounding too harsh, I really am being light hearted about this. I do feel however we aren't heading into another depression simply because of the way the dollar is reacting to foreign currencies. But if you do want to hedge your investments against the possibility of one, precious metals are the best way to do so.

Oh yeah and before I forget...
I think when the President and Congress clearly agree on a tax relief package to be implemented immediately, something's up. There are obvious concerns that go beyond partisan politics. There are red flags everywhere. You must also note that the media is very cautious about publishing the truth, especially about the economy. When they do, it's too late, and our fat's already in the fire.

You're right about the precious metals thing. Gold is out of my league right now, but what do you think about silver? And how does that compare with gold?
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Old March 24th, 2008, 05:30 PM
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Default Re: Are we headed for a depression?

Silver? Hmmm let's look at it this way, the Federal Government went off silver as a way of backing the good name of the US Dollar a long time ago.

There is a place called Fort Knox and they hold gold reserves. They don't have silver there so that should tell you something about the reserve value of that metal.

Platinum is another good precious metal that has hedging power but is very expensive.

You can try silver as it's value has slowly crept up over the years but to me it's too unstable and at it's current value it seems like it peaked out already and we missed that boat. It spiked last year or the year before that but with the onslaught of a recession in the near future, I think that spike has gone and passed.

The trend in silver seems to be upward however so I'd wait a short while and see how silver is reacting to our current economic situation. If it hovers around where it is now with some upward trend then maybe I'd buy.

The good thing about silver is that although more volatile than gold (historically) it seems to shadow gold's trend and right now gold is getting close to a thousand bucks an ounce making that precious metal really nice compared to the 90's when it was almost half to two-thirds that value.
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Last edited by craigwatanabe; March 24th, 2008 at 05:50 PM.
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Old March 28th, 2008, 02:16 PM
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Default Re: Are we headed for a depression?

But still, wouldn't it be a decent commodity for bartering? I would imagine that even things like quarters or silver dollars have intrinsic value based on its precious metal content, as little as it is. Still, it's better than paper money.

A roll of quarters for that roll of toilet paper, please. Or, maybe I'll just use this hundred dollar bill...
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Old March 28th, 2008, 02:21 PM
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Default Re: Are we headed for a depression?

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Originally Posted by WindwardOahuRN View Post
We just filled out mandatory info sheets at work where we provided info regarding the number of people in our household and whether or not those people were allergic to any medications, specifically antibiotics.
The reason? Oh, just in case there is a pandemic or some such disaster. It seems we'll get first dibs on meds. I guess they want the health care professionals up and running in such an event.
This is the very first time I've been asked to provide such info. Makes you wonder if someone knows something and isn't sharing.

so did you enjoy your chocolate covered, nutty anthrax "pill"?
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Old April 8th, 2008, 04:57 AM
WindwardOahuRN WindwardOahuRN is offline
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Default Re: Are we headed for a depression?

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so did you enjoy your chocolate covered, nutty anthrax "pill"?
I opted for the caramel coated version.
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Old April 8th, 2008, 06:55 AM
Creative-1 Creative-1 is offline
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Default Re: Are we headed for a depression?

Depression? Absolutely not. The Great Depression of the 1930s cannot happen again.

Insurance on bank deposits will prevent a run on banks that turned a recession into a depression.

Brakes on the stock market will prevent it from free-falling, like it did in 1929. We've created many other structures (like unemployment insurance and Social Security) to keep our economy from imploding again.

The question really is: will this downturn become a recession?

The answer is: maybe. We won't know for awhile, but we've faced recessions before and will face them again.

It's like the tide, going in and out. It's a natural ebb and flow.

I was a boy scout. I'm mentally prepared for a recession at least every ten years. It's going to happen. It's the economic facts of life.
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