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Hurricane Flossie

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  • #16
    Re: Storm Systems

    Originally posted by LikaNui View Post
    And at this link is an animated satellite image of Flossie.
    I notice the animated image is from AccuWeather. Back in 1992 KGMB TV caught some big flack for using AccuWeather and followed their prediction that Hurricane Iniki would hit Honolulu, while the NOAA I think predicted a miss for Honolulu and having it hit Kauai.... which is what really happened.

    I wonder if any of the local stations are using AccuWeather today? It would seem the NOAA is probably better trusted.

    That being said, KFVE TV's 9 o'clock newscast says that winds are now at 140 mph.
    I'm still here. Are you?

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    • #17
      Re: Storm Systems

      HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
      NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
      0900 UTC SUN AUG 12 2007

      HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 143.5W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

      PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

      ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
      EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT


      Source, NOAA
      Stop being lost in thought where our problems thrive.~

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      • #18
        Re: Storm Systems

        This is an interesting AP statistic...

        The islands get an average of 4.5 tropical cyclones a year and one hurricane about every 15 years. Last year, the central Pacific had five tropical cyclones after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted two to three.
        Currently she's here, holding a steady westerly course, behaving and remaining south of the Hawaiian chain.

        Back to you Joe.
        sigpic The Tasty Island

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        • #19
          Re: Storm Systems

          Flossie for mayor!

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          • #20
            Re: Storm Systems

            Today's 5AM storm report: NOAA Link

            ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FLOSSIE CONTINUES OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN...

            AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 144.6 WEST OR ABOUT 810 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 1020 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.

            FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

            MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
            They say it's supposed to weaken... hasn't done so yet..
            I'm still here. Are you?

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            • #21
              Re: Storm Systems

              Originally posted by mel View Post
              Today's 5AM storm report: NOAA Link



              They say it's supposed to weaken... hasn't done so yet..
              Think POSITIVE...POSITIVE...It's not going to happen.

              It will be only rain.

              Auntie Lynn
              Be AKAMAI ~ KOKUA Hawai`i!
              Philippians 4:13 --- I can do all things through Christ who strengthens me.

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              • #22
                Re: Storm Systems

                I think the old saying, "hope for the best, prepare for the worst" applies here. Reality so far is with the latter... "prepare for the worst". Next NOAA report is at 11 AM HST.
                I'm still here. Are you?

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                • #23
                  Re: Storm Systems

                  Today...



                  Yesterday...

                  sigpic The Tasty Island

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                  • #24
                    Re: Storm Systems

                    Current forecast shows south point of the Big Island will be hit with winds greater then 39MPH. Don't just focus on the eye. The storm is large and the winds extend quite some distance from the eye.

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                    • #25
                      Re: Storm Systems

                      You know...the 1 thing thats getting to me is that in the hawaii weather.edu website, they got NO postings up for any kinda alert for this storm...what? Are they waiting till the "physical effects" start to happen before they say something? I think its due to the other past hurricanes quickly becoming TS to Depressions, making them decide NOT to post any alerts or advisories. As mentioned in my past posts....each 1/2 hr of monitoring Flossie, it inches closer to the isles AND has that west-northwestardly track....I think we all should prepare our essentials just in case....since its a sunday and NOT a Monday....we ALL shouldnt wait till last minute and procrastinate. Remember, we are NOT looking at effects at the center and few hundred miles then...the range of physical effects pose extends WAY beyond this...

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                      • #26
                        Re: Storm Systems

                        I think we should stick with the NOAA forecast and tracking.
                        I'm still here. Are you?

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                        • #27
                          Re: Storm Systems

                          Originally posted by hifotog View Post
                          You know...the 1 thing thats getting to me is that in the hawaii weather.edu website, they got NO postings up for any kinda alert for this storm...what?
                          The lowest level alert that I know of is "Tropical Storm Watch". It's issued when the effects of Tropical Storm conditions (winds 39-73MPH) are expected in the next 36 hours. Right now I show that South Point on the Big Island could get a TSW as soon as 8PM Monday as the hurricane is predicted to by passing by 8AM Wednesday.

                          Sirens typically don't go off until you reach Hurricane Warning - and that's only when you expect a hurricane in the next 24 hours.

                          While the situation is a cause for concern, the lack of official alerts looks correct because it's all too far away time-wise.

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                          • #28
                            Re: Storm Systems

                            Originally posted by hifotog View Post
                            You know...the 1 thing thats getting to me is that in the hawaii weather.edu website, they got NO postings up for any kinda alert for this storm...what? Are they waiting till the "physical effects" start to happen before they say something?
                            What Mel said.

                            NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center

                            Go here for the picture:
                            Loop image capture of the tropical Pacific via NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES).
                            Last edited by Pomai; August 12, 2007, 09:22 AM.
                            sigpic The Tasty Island

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                            • #29
                              Re: Storm Systems

                              Originally posted by mel View Post
                              I notice the animated image is from AccuWeather. Back in 1992 KGMB TV caught some big flack for using AccuWeather and followed their prediction that Hurricane Iniki would hit Honolulu, while the NOAA I think predicted a miss for Honolulu and having it hit Kauai.... which is what really happened.

                              I wonder if any of the local stations are using AccuWeather today? It would seem the NOAA is probably better trusted.
                              Which incident are you referring to? During Iniki, there was one forecast from NOAA that showed Oahu getting a much stronger hit. The storm had wobbled giving everyone a good scare. That changed in the next forecast.

                              What I remember KGMB really getting in trouble for was broadcasting AccuWeather's storm alert (Hurricane Warning?) when NOAA hadn't issued one. That created quite a bit of confusion. KGMB/AccuWeather ended up with egg on their face over that one because NOAA was right and it was a non-event. KGMB then announced while they would still use AccuWeather, they would stick with NOAA alerts. Meanwhile, AccuWeather said NOAA should have issues the warning based on the possibility of the hurricane hitting and the inherent uncertainty in forecasting.

                              And as a note, all of my comments are based on looking at a graphic representation of NOAA's forecasts.
                              Last edited by GeckoGeek; August 12, 2007, 09:22 AM.

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                              • #30
                                Re: Storm Systems

                                That's probably the incident with AccuWeather and KGMB. It's been so long ago I forget the exact details. But I do know that KGMB and AccWeather got egg in their face for quite some time after Iniki hit.

                                my 3,000th post.
                                Last edited by mel; August 12, 2007, 09:48 AM.
                                I'm still here. Are you?

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