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The 2008 Presidential Elections - Chapter 2

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  • Re: The 2008 Presidential Elections - Chapter 2

    Just read an article that said that 32% of Clinton supporters will likely vote for McCain if Obama wins the nomination. Doesn't sound good for Dem's White House hopes if the current lead Obama enjoys continues to the end.

    Obama's biggest support comes from the younger demographic. But there are 65 million Boomers out there who are now older. So even if Obama gets the nod, enough old folks will vote for the old guy (McCain).

    At least Dems are enjoying the show currently. I think? Right?
    FutureNewsNetwork.com
    Energy answers are already here.

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    • Re: The 2008 Presidential Elections - Chapter 2

      Originally posted by timkona View Post
      Just read an article that said that 32% of Clinton supporters will likely vote for McCain if Obama wins the nomination. Doesn't sound good for Dem's White House hopes if the current lead Obama enjoys continues to the end.
      Yeah well, those kinds of poll questions (asking someone how they would vote based on a scenario that has not come to fruition yet) and the results don't matter a whit, since the general election day is still more than 7 months away. Heck, no one even knows for sure who the VP running mates will be. It's way too early for Obama to worry about those kinds of numbers.

      Originally posted by timkona View Post
      Obama's biggest support comes from the younger demographic. But there are 65 million Boomers out there who are now older. So even if Obama gets the nod, enough old folks will vote for the old guy (McCain).
      You think boomers will relate to McCain? "I remember the day Pearl Harbor got bombed." A real classic Baby Boomer memory, fer shure. Along with the greatest hits of the Andrews Sisters, Perry Como, and of course FRANKIE!

      In the meantime, McCain's short-term memory appears to be going. Iran training "al-Qaeda" militants? And he's made that slip-up more than once. Could Alzheimer's be far behind?
      This post may contain an opinion that may conflict with your opinion. Do not take it personal. Polite discussion of difference of opinion is welcome.

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      • Re: The 2008 Presidential Elections - Chapter 2

        McCain didn't make a mistake with that. He's simply beginning the mutation proccess, getting the people to believe what he wants them to.
        http://thissmallfrenchtown.blogspot.com/
        http://thefrenchneighbor.blogspot.com/

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        • Re: The 2008 Presidential Elections - Chapter 2

          Originally posted by SusieMisajon View Post
          McCain didn't make a mistake with that. He's simply beginning the mutation proccess, getting the people to believe what he wants them to.
          I doubt if that is the case. Remember that this is a candidate whose economic expertise ("I've got Greenspan's book.") isn't his long suit. If he's gonna impress voters, it will have to be based on matters that relate to national security and foreign policy. "Getting the people to believe what he wants them to" will not work when it comes to stating facts that are just plain wrong. McCain's going to get shreded up in debates if he continues to confuse Al Qaeda with Shiite extremists.
          This post may contain an opinion that may conflict with your opinion. Do not take it personal. Polite discussion of difference of opinion is welcome.

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          • Re: The 2008 Presidential Elections - Chapter 2

            Originally posted by Frankie's Market View Post
            McCain's going to get shreded up in debates if he continues to confuse Al Qaeda with Shiite extremists.
            Unless he'll use Al-Maliki's words that the Iran-supported Shiite militia managed by cleric Moqtada Al-Sadr is worse than Al Qaeda.

            I don't know about you guys but I don't want an Ayatollah governing Iraq.
            Beijing 8-08-08 to 8-24-08

            Tiananmen Square 4-15-89 to 6-04-89

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            • Re: The 2008 Presidential Elections - Chapter 2

              Michael Barone, one of the few political pundits that I actually trust, offers a scenario that is likely to happen, Clinton wins the popular vote and Obama leads in delegate numbers. Given the chaos that ensued at the Texas Dem caucus Saturday where BHO was awarded more delegates despite HRC's win of the popular vote, it may be prophetic: Michael Barone for US News

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              • Re: The 2008 Presidential Elections - Chapter 2

                Originally posted by glossyp View Post
                Michael Barone, one of the few political pundits that I actually trust, offers a scenario that is likely to happen, Clinton wins the popular vote and Obama leads in delegate numbers. Given the chaos that ensued at the Texas Dem caucus Saturday where BHO was awarded more delegates despite HRC's win of the popular vote, it may be prophetic: Michael Barone for US News
                Mehhh. I don't consider her popular. But she can still change my mind.

                All she has to do is dump Bill.
                Beijing 8-08-08 to 8-24-08

                Tiananmen Square 4-15-89 to 6-04-89

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                • Re: The 2008 Presidential Elections - Chapter 2

                  Originally posted by Random View Post
                  Unless he'll use Al-Maliki's words that the Iran-supported Shiite militia managed by cleric Moqtada Al-Sadr is worse than Al Qaeda.
                  That's missing the point. How can our Commander-In-Chief effectively conduct a war against terrorism when he doesn't understand the different sources of violence? You can't lump Shiite and Sunni militarists all together. You need to know where they come from and what makes each of them tick if you want to diffuse the various terrorist networks. I don't know about you, but I think our country can not afford to sacrifice our brave US servicemen and women on any more ill-advised missions and invasions.

                  McCain is talking about 100 more years in Iraq. Great! And while he's at it, why not take on Dick Cheney as his running mate and end this charade about making a clean break from Bush's disastrous course in foreign policy.
                  This post may contain an opinion that may conflict with your opinion. Do not take it personal. Polite discussion of difference of opinion is welcome.

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                  • Re: The 2008 Presidential Elections - Chapter 2

                    Some interesting analysis from the Moderate Voice re: where Obama and Clinton now stand.

                    http://themoderatevoice.com/politics...to-10-percent/

                    Some highlights:

                    A Gallup daily tracking poll released Sunday indicates Senator Barack Obama has extended his lead over Senator Hillary Clinton in their battle for the nomination to 10 percent — the first double digit lead by either since February, when Clinton was ahead:

                    ****************

                    What does all this mean? Most likely:
                    (1) Many voters who are Democrats have moved on from the controversy over Obama’s fiery pastor’s comments. But he’d better be ready to deal with it if he gets the nomination since GOP ads will feature videos that will seek to remind voters of the controversy.
                    (2) Hillary Clinton’s campaign is still reeling from the Bosnia comments disaster.
                    But a cautionary note: polls are see-saws and this a snapshot. It can change on a dime.
                    But there are some indications that a shift is underway that is not what the Clinton camp wants.
                    According to the Wall Street Journal, there is a drip-drip-drip of Superdelegate momentum falling on Obama’s side:

                    **************************

                    So Clinton is caught in a political Catch 22.
                    Her campaign, in various news reports, has made it clear that it seeks to raise Obama’s negatives so that by election time he is unelectable. But the only way to do that is in a way that elicits howls of protest from Obama supporters, hardens party divisions — and raises Clinton’s OWN negatives. A nomination achieved by politically dismembering Obama would be a hallow one. And if she won the general election, she’d likely take office a polarizing figure.
                    Meanwhile, it’s clear the Clinton camp is concerned about a possible steady defection of superdelegates.

                    ****************************

                    She needs large victorious margins in the remaining primaries, no more major stumbles such as the Bosnia debacle which undermined her credibility and has likely inspired the press to check her every future assertion, and/or a major Obama stumble or development. And she’ll try to seat Florida and Michigan to her advantage, but her critics accuse her of trying to change the rules.
                    The biggest danger: if the Clinton camp engineers something that destroys Obama, the price could be some Democrats staying home and Republicans mobilized by a Hillary Clinton candidacy.
                    It’s a tall order for Clinton, coming amid reports that the campaign can’t pay its bills and Obama gaining more political delegate ground in Texas.
                    How can the Clinton campaign start to turn the poll numbers around and turn off the faucet so the slow drip of superdelegates ends? By outclassing Obama on issues, outcampaiging him, out organizing him and dominating news cycles with stories that are positive about Hillary Clinton’s policies, ideas and appearances.
                    Or will it all boil down to waiting for the next negative campaigning shoe to drop? (Stay tuned…)


                    Unfortunately, I think the Clinton camp will take the latter option.
                    This post may contain an opinion that may conflict with your opinion. Do not take it personal. Polite discussion of difference of opinion is welcome.

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                    • Re: The 2008 Presidential Elections - Chapter 2

                      Originally posted by Frankie's Market View Post
                      Unfortunately, I think the Clinton camp will take the latter option.
                      In light of your strong support of Obama, I was wondering where you might come down on some issues. If you're willing, and I certainly understand if you'd prefer not to, here are questions I'm interested in:

                      1) If HRC does manage to secure the nomination, would you vote for her in the general election? If she does take the negative road as most expect, would that prevent you from supporting her?

                      2) If BHO does get the nomination as seems likely, do you think HRC will secretly work to undermine his chances of winning the general election?

                      3) What do you think BHO's biggest challenge will be in the general election?

                      TIA!

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                      • Re: The 2008 Presidential Elections - Chapter 2

                        Who would I vote for if Clinton is the nominee? Honestly, I haven't decided yet. I might vote for her. But I haven't ruled out other options. I might yet vote for Ralph Nader again. In the general election, I will vote for whoever I think is best qualified, even if I know that person has no chance of winning. I don't believe in voting for "the lesser of 2 evils."

                        Whatever Clinton decides to do from here on out, she needs to remember that life goes on after the DNC in Denver. If she antagonizes too many superdelegates, if it is perceived by Democratic party elders that she and her campaign is engaged in a scorched-earth strategy, she will end up paying for it when she returns to Capitol Hill in 2009. The rumor that Hillary could succeed Harry Reid as Senate majority leader next year,.... well, you can flush that idea straight down the toilet if the other congressional Democrats feel that she places her own personal agenda above that of the party's best interests. Forget about her ever assuming any kind of leadership position or chairing any key committees in the Senate.

                        As far as Obama is concerned, I think the numbers in the Gallup daily tracking polls shows that he has successfully weathered the Pastor Wright controversy (growing from a 2 point lead on Mar. 24 to an 8 point lead today) and that his speech on race did work. While controversies and gaffes provide plenty of fodder for discussion on TV news and internet blogs, I think most voters will ultimately not be distracted by all the mudslinging and will make their decisions based on what candidates have to offer on the issues that really matter: the economy, the war in Iraq, national security, health care, and so forth.

                        So for anyone who wants to "convince" voters here not to vote on Obama by falsely linking him to Islam, questioning Michelle Obama's patriotism, and continually harping on the same 30 second soundbites of Pastor Wright, then have at it. I think most voters and virtually all of the superdelegates won't be swayed by those kinds of campaign smears. If anything, it will increase the disgust and resentment that people have for candidates and campaigns that resort to such attacks instead of focusing on the relevant issues that really matter.
                        This post may contain an opinion that may conflict with your opinion. Do not take it personal. Polite discussion of difference of opinion is welcome.

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                        • Re: The 2008 Presidential Elections - Chapter 2

                          Originally posted by Frankie's Market View Post
                          That's missing the point. How can our Commander-In-Chief effectively conduct a war against terrorism when he doesn't understand the different sources of violence? You can't lump Shiite and Sunni militarists all together. You need to know where they come from and what makes each of them tick if you want to diffuse the various terrorist networks. I don't know about you, but I think our country can not afford to sacrifice our brave US servicemen and women on any more ill-advised missions and invasions.
                          So, we should pull out and let Moqtada Al-Sadr annex Iraq to Iran? Are Iraqis that hopeless in your POV?
                          Beijing 8-08-08 to 8-24-08

                          Tiananmen Square 4-15-89 to 6-04-89

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                          • Re: The 2008 Presidential Elections - Chapter 2

                            Thanks, FM, I appreciate that you took the time to answer the questions I posed.

                            One item that is at the forefront of my current thinking on the upcoming general election campaign is how the candidates will frame the arguments. It's pretty clear (thus far) that McCain is going to be very cautious in challenging Obama - don't know if that will last or if he's just biding his time and letting HRC and BHO inflict as much damage as possible on each other. I suspect it's the latter.

                            BHO's weaknesses from my perspective are his age, his shifting stance on Israel and well-documented ties to pro-Palestinian groups, his disdain for the Second amendment and his desire to withdraw from Iraq immediately. JM's weaknesses are his age, volatile personality, inability to successful engage the party base and weak economic experience. Of course, who these men select as running mates should help to shore up these deficits.

                            I don't think BHO can successfully paint JM's comment about 100 years in Iraq as support for an endless war there - I know Obamaites like to think that, but I suspect the American people understand an ongoing presence there (as in Korea, Japan and Europe) is not only likely, but probably a good idea.

                            No matter what, there is a long way to go yet! And it's just getting more interesting all the time.

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                            • Re: The 2008 Presidential Elections - Chapter 2

                              Originally posted by glossyp View Post
                              One item that is at the forefront of my current thinking on the upcoming general election campaign is how the candidates will frame the arguments. It's pretty clear (thus far) that McCain is going to be very cautious in challenging Obama - don't know if that will last or if he's just biding his time and letting HRC and BHO inflict as much damage as possible on each other. I suspect it's the latter.
                              No sense in McCain attacking Obama now. Remember that mudslinging always has a negative boomerang effect. Clinton's camp is doing the dirty work, so McCain would be smart to stay clear from the fray.

                              At the same time, though, I think McCain has pissed away precious time by not establishing his credentials in the economic arena. What are his plans to deal with the subprime mortgage crisis? Staving off the offshore outsourcing of jobs? The runaway price of gas? I'm not hearing satisfactory answers to any of these questions from McCain. If he provide any plans and visions that he has for the economy by the time the Democratic nominee is chosen, he's gonna have his hands full trying to deliver his message while engaged in partisan politicking and debates. What a waste of the time and the situation that he now has.

                              Originally posted by glossyp View Post
                              BHO's weaknesses from my perspective are his age,
                              If Obama is elected president, he'll be 47 when he's sworn in. That's older than Teddy Roosevelt (42), John F. Kennedy (43), and even Bill Clinton (46) when they first took office.

                              I don't think age will be an issue in this campaign.

                              Originally posted by glossyp View Post
                              I don't think BHO can successfully paint JM's comment about 100 years in Iraq as support for an endless war there - I know Obamaites like to think that, but I suspect the American people understand an ongoing presence there (as in Korea, Japan and Europe) is not only likely, but probably a good idea.
                              Probably? Maybe? You think?

                              That's the problem with the "100 years" quote and similar questionable statements he has made. McCain carelessly tosses out phrases without clarifying himself sufficiently, leaving it to his rivals to make their own interpretations of his words. And after Clinton, Obama, and the pundits have had a field day, McCain finds himself on the defensive, trying to explain what he really meant for the next few days rather than focusing on topics that would be more positive for his campaign.

                              For someone who has more years in elective politics than Clinton and Obama combined, McCain sure hasn't been able to translate all that experience into campaigning savvy.
                              This post may contain an opinion that may conflict with your opinion. Do not take it personal. Polite discussion of difference of opinion is welcome.

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                              • Re: The 2008 Presidential Elections - Chapter 2

                                Originally posted by Frankie's Market View Post


                                If Obama is elected president, he'll be 47 when he's sworn in. That's older than Teddy Roosevelt (42), John F. Kennedy (43), and even Bill Clinton (46) when they first took office.

                                I don't think age will be an issue in this campaign.
                                I do think age (or call it experience if you prefer) is important, but the ones that will resonate with middle America when the nitty gritty gets going in the general election campaign are the ones listed after - Israel, Iraq, economy and Second amendment. These will be harder to address by the respective camps. As far as I can see, JM has no particular economic credentials and BHO has not much of leg to stand on with Israel or the Second amendment. Strong vice president choices will be important on both sides.

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